TINH CAP BACH CUA CAC GIAI PHAP KINH TE HAU COVID-19
TAI VIET NAM
• TRAN TH! BICH DUNG - TRAN BA TH(p
TOM TAT:
Kinh te' dtfdc xem la mpl trong nhtfng Hnh vtfc nhay cam trtfdc tde dpng ttf nhffng bid'n c6' ben ngodi - nhtf chie'n tranh, thien tai, dich benh... SARS-CoV-2 Id dai dich dang dien ra kh^p cdc qudc gia tren todn the gidi. dieu na\ ch^ng nhffng ldm thiet hai ve nhdn mang, ma cdn ldm cho nen kinh te'loan cau bi dinh tre -cdngdn viec ldm gidm siit nghiem trpng, ty Ie that nghiep tdng cao. thu nhap cija ngtfdi Iao ddng sut gidm. Van de quan trpng ddt ra cho Ianh dao cdc ntfdc liic nd\ la phai nhanh chdng ngdn chan vd dap tat dich benh, ddng thdi de ra cdc giai phap \i md, vi md de phue hdi nen kinhte khi dich benh dtfdc dd'y liii.
Ti^ khda: Covid-19, hdu qua Covid. giai phdp kinh te.
1. D^l vd'n d^
Dai dich SARS-CoV-2 - cdn goi Id dai dich Co\id-l'). la mdl tham hpa cua nhan loai. Nd chang nhffng ga^ tdn thdt ldn \ e nhan mang ma cdn ldm cho nen kinh le - \a hdi bj dinh tre. ddi sdng ngtfdi dan ngaj cang them khd khan.
Trtfdc Onh hinh nay. Chinh phii cdc ntfdc ndi chung vd N'iei Nam ndi rieng dang nd Itfc dap dich benh. ddng thdi chuan bi cdc phtfdng an kich thich. phue hdi kinh te'khi dai dich qua di. \T \ d \ . Lie gia da Itfa chpn va nghien ctfu de tdi "'Tinh cap bach cua cac giai phap kinh te'hdu Covid-19 tai \*iei Nam" la het stfc thiet thtfc. Bdi viet dtfa vdo sd lieu thd'ng ke ve tinh hinh iang trtfdng kinh te' cua \'ici Nam cung nhtf MV dung cac phtfdng phap thd'ng kc. tdng hdp. phan tich danh gid de thtfc hien.
2. Tinh hinh kinh td' thd' gidi do anh htfdng dai dich SARS-CoV-2
2.1. Tren the gidi
Nhieu td chtfc qud'e te' da cd nhflng phdn tich, ddnh gia tde ddng cua dai dich Covid-19 vd xay dtfng cdc kjch ban tang trtfdng kinh te the gidi ndm 2020. Theo City Research, kinht^
the gidi se suy thodi tang trtfdng -2,3% ndm 2020 (.so vdi mtfc tdng trtfdng 2,6% ndm 2019.
suy thoai hdn mtfc -1,7% ndm 2009). Trongdd.
tang trtfdng GDP cua Trung Quo'c chi khoang 2.4% (so vdi mtfc tang 6,1% nam 2019), cua Hoa Ky -2.6% (so vdi mtfc tang 2,3% ndm 2019). cua Nhat Ban -1,9% (so vdi mtfc tdng 0.7% nam 2019). cdn khu vuc ddng tien chung chau Au tham chf su> thodi -8.4'/. fso vdi mtfc tang 1.2% nam 2019).
9 0 So 8 - Thdng 4/2020
KINHTE
Ve linh hinh lam phat, tdng cau, gia dau va ndng ltf(?ng giam manh, nen du nhieu ntfdc tuy da kich thich kinh te. gid thtfc pham va dich vu y te' ldng. nhtfng lam phdt loan cau vdn cdn d mdc kha thd'p, khodng 2.2% (so vdi mtfc 2,5% ndm 2019).
Dtf bdo tdng trtfdng ndy se cdn thay dd'i tuy thupc vao 3 ye'u to'; Thtf nha't la, kha ndng kie'm soat djch b?nh cua mdi qudc gia; Thtf hai la, hieu qua cua cdc chinh sdch kich thich kinh td"; Thtf ba la, hidu qua hdp tde qud'e te trong cdng tac phdng chd'ng dai djch Covid-19.
Ve tinh trang thS'l nghidp, theo to chtfc Lao ddng Qud'e te'canh bdo, gdn 25 trieu ngtfdi bugc phai nghl viec ne'u djch benh Covid-19 khdng dtfdc kiem sodt. Cilt giam viec lam da xay ra khilp cdc qud'e gia ttf chau A de'n chau Au va ndng n^ nha't la Hoa Ky. Dieu ndy cho tha'y, day Id cupc suy thodi thdi binh sau nha't ke tff nhffng ndm 1930, khi cdc niin kinh te' the gidi bj ddng bdng dd' chie'n da'u vdi dai dich.
2.2. Tgi Vift Nam
Cung vdi Chinh phu cac mfdc, Dang vd Nha ntfdc Viel Nam da thtfc hidn quye't liel cdc bien phdp ngdn chdn djch benh, nhtf; each ly xa hdi, ddng cil'a bien gidi, ban che' di lai giffa cac dia phtfdng, khdng tgp trung ddng ngtfdi, thu hep san xua't cua nhtfng ngdnh khdng thiel ye'u... Cdc bien phdp nay da anh htfdng de'n mdt sd' ITnh vtfc va tde dpng de'n nhieu nganh san xua't.
Cd the ke de'n, vdi ITnh vffc ndng, lam, thuy san gdp khd khdn trong viec xua't khau hang hda va nhap khau phu trd ndng nghiep. Dd'i vdi Imh vtfc cdng nghidp vd xay dffng, cdc nganh san xua't vdi chudi cung tfng bi gian doan, cdc ngdnh xdy dtfng bj giam siit do bat dpng san gap khd khdn. Linh vtfc dich vu du lich hi ddng bang.
LTnh vtfc tdi chinh - ngan hang - bao hie'm cung bi lac ddng gidn tie'p. LTnh vifc kinh doanh bat ddng san bj tde ddng nang ne do khach hang ngtfng giao dich. LTnh vtfc dich vu y le' bi tac ddng hai chieu, nhtfng tac ddng tieu ctfc nhieu hdn. Giao due ddo tao cung la ITnh vtfc bi tde ddng ldn tff dai dich nay. vi ta't ca cac trtfdng ddng cu'a. naffng hoat dona.
Hau qua cua nhffng tac ddng tren ldm cho nen kinh te' hi dinh tre, thu nhdp ciia doanh nghidp vd ngtfdi lao ddng bi anh htfdng nghiem trpng, ddi sd'ng cua ngtfdi dan khd khdn hdn, tieu dung cua xd hdi hi sut giam. Ben canh dd, dau ttf cua cdc doanh nghiep cung bi tac ddng dang ke khi phai thu hep quy md san xua't hodc dffng boat ddng, mdt sd' doanh nghiep cd nguy cd pha san.
Ve tinh hinh xua't nhdp khd'u. do dich Covid-19 lay lan manhd cdc ntfdc dd'i tac thtfdng mai hdng dau Clia Viet Nam - nhtf Trung Qudc, Han Qudc.
Nhat Ban, EU va Hoa Ky, da lam anh htfdng khdng nhd de'n kim ngach xud't, nhap kha'u cua nhieu mat hang. Gid tri kim ngach xua't, nhap khau quy 1/2020 giam 0,7% so vdi ciing ky ndm trtfdc. Dd Id nhtfng nguyen nhan ddn de'n td'ng cau cua nen kinh te' sut giam, tang trffdng GDP quy 1/2020 chi dat 3.82% so vdi cung ky nam trtfdc (quy 1/2019 dat 6,79% so vdi cung ky nam trtfdc) (Hinh I)
3. Cac giai phap kinh td'tai Viet Nam 3.L Cap do viino
Uu tien hang dau cua Viet Nam hien nay Id duy tri stf thanh cdng vd cd hieu qua trong cdng tac ngan chdn dich benh Idy lan trong cdng ddng.
Tuy nhien, Chinh phu cflng can chu trong de'n viec phue hdi cdc hoat ddng ve kinh te' - xd hdi.
Khi dich benh dtfdc kiem soat chat che, Idnh dao chinh phu se ttfng btfdc ndi long cac bien phdp ngdn chan dich benh. day la thdi diem chuyen sang giai doan mdi - sd'ng chung an loan vdi Covid-19, nhtfng tuyet dd'i khdng chu quan.
* Ve cdc gidi phdp kinh te ngdn hgn.
Muc tieu dat ra la can khac phue khd khan cua cac ITnh vtfc, cac ngdnh san xua't kinh doanh, ddng thdi van dam bao an sinh xa hdi, phdng chd'ng dich Covid-19 nham chua'n bi td't mpi dieu kien de tao dd phat tnen trong thdi gian tdi. "Phai bie'n nguy thanh cd. bie'n bai thanh thd'ng va chung ta hieu rang nhffmdt cai Id xo bi nen, can chuan bi td't de' bat ra manh me trong thdi gian tdi" - Thu tffdng Nguyen Xuan Phiic nha'n manh trong phien hpp thtfdng ky thang 2/2020, ngay 3/3/2020. Tren tinh than dd, Chinh phu da ban hanh mdt so' gdi hd ird cd hieu Iffc ngay nhtf:
So 8-Thang 4/2020 91
Hinh 1: D6 thj tdng trifdng GDP quy I tCf ndm 2010-2020
Nguon: Tdng cue Thdng ke
- Gdi hd trd tin dung 250.000 i\ ddng; Cac to' chtfc tin dung se tie't giam chi phi de' ddnh 250.000 t) ddng cho khach hang \a\ vdi lai sud'l tfu ddi giam ttf 0.5'"f - 1.5%/ndm. Nhtfng doanh nghiep, hd kinh doanh hi anh htfdng bdi djch Covid-19 dtfdc xem xet cho \a\ mdi nh^m khdi phue lai boat ddng san xuai. kinh doanh.
- Gdi hd trd tdi chinh dtfdc Bd Tai chinh de
\uai vdi Chinh phu iang len 180.000 ty ddng vdi ndi dung Id; gia ban nop thue'. tien thue da't cho mdl sd nganh. ITnh \tfc chju anh htfdng cua dich benhCoMd-19.
- Gdi hd trd an sinh xd hdi 62.000 i\ ddng: La bidn phdp hd trd cho ngtfdi dan gap khd khan do dai Jich Covid-19. Theo dd. khoang 20 trieu ngtfdi - bao gdm 7 nhdm dd'i ttfdng bi anh htfdng bdi dai dicb. sc dtfdc thu htfdng gdi hd trd an sinh
\a hdi \di kinh phi hdn 62.000 ly ddng.
* I (• ddi hgn
Theo NiC-n Nghien ctfu Kinh te \a Chinh sach (VEPR). CO 3 kich ban kmh le cd the \ a \ ra dd'i vdi kinh te \'iet Nam nam 2020.
- Kich ban I; Dich Co\id-l9 tai \ i e i Nam dtfdc khdng che hoan todn vdo gitfa thdng 5 vd hoai ddng kinh le dan trd lai binh ihtfdng.
- Kich ban 2: Dich Covid-19 trong ntfdc keo ddi \a chi dtfdc khd'ng che hodn lodn vao nii'a sau quv 3/2020. Trong thdi gian ndy. the'gidi tie'p tuc
cdc bien phdp gidn each xa hpi do stf tdi phdtciJa benh djch d nhieu trung tam kinh te' tai chinh quan trpng. Cac hoat dpng kinh te' tren the' gidi chi dan trd lai binh thtfdng ba't dau vao cud'i qu^
3/2020.
- Kich ban 3: Dich Covid-19 trong ntfdc kiSo ddi va chi dtfdc khd'ng che'hodn loan vao nffa sau quy 4/2020. Trong thdi gian ndy, the' gidi tiep luc cdc bien phap gian cdch xa hdi do stf tai phdtciSa benh djch d nhieu irung tdm kinh te' tdi chinh quan trpng. Cac boat ddng kinh te' tren thd' gidi chi dan trd lai binh thtfdng bdt dau vdo cud'i quj 4/2020.
Cho du Id kich ban nao di chang nffa, trong thdi ky hau Covid-19, d Viet Nam, stf phue hoi hoan toan cua nhieu nganh cd quan he thtfdng mai vdi ntfdc ngodi - nhff hang khdng, du lich hay thdi trang xua't khau - se bi anh htfdng ndng ne va keo ddi. Thdi gian tdi, Viet Nam can xdy dtfng cdc chinh sach tfng phd khac nhau dd'i vdi cdc c^p dd ve benh dich. Ndi chung, phai tao dieu ki^n tdt nhat cho cdc doanh nghiep, cdc nganh trd lai hoat ddng binh thtfdng nhtf thdi ky trtfdc khi c6 dich, Dtfng d gdc do vT md, Chinh phu cd the sii dung cdc cdng cu kinh te' - nhu chinh sdch tai khda, chinh sdch tien te, chinh sath ngoai thtfdng -de khdi phue dan ndn kinh te thL-, ,h hinh dich benh trong ntfdc vd tren the gidi
92 So 8 - Thdng 4/2020
KINHTE
Trong trtfdng hpp trong ntfdc vd the'gidi khdng chd' vd kiem sodt td't dich benh, Chinh phu vd cdc cap, cac ngdnh day nhanh cdc bien phap phue hdi kinh le. taoda tdng trtfdng kinh te'cao. Ngodi ra, thdng qua thtfc tien. Chinh phu cung can tffng btfdc xdy dtfng nhtfng viing dem chinh sach kinh le vTmd -nhtf vung dem ngudn vd'n, vung dem tai khda - d^ phdng chd'ng nhffng cu sd'c kinh te' gid'ng nhtf dai dich Covid-19. Khdng nhffng vdy, cung cdn da dang hda thi trtfdng xua't nhap kha'u, trdnh phu thude hodn toan vao thi trtfdng chau Au, My, Nhdt Bdn hay Trung Qudc.
3.2. Cd'p dg vi md
Ngoai cdc gidi phdp cim Chinh phu, ban than cdc doanh nghiep, cdc nganh cung cdn cd ldm the' chu ddng kbdc phue khd khan, da dang hda thi trtfdng ddu ra cung nhtf ngudn cung tfng ddu vao, gidm bdt stf phu thupc vdo thi trtfdng Trung Qudc.
Mpl sd'gidi phdpcu the cua cdc doanh nghiep:
- Nhtfng doanh nghiep vd tap doan ldn khdng ihudc cdc nganh bi anh htfdng trifc tie'p cua dich Covid-19 nen tan dung thdi gian nay de' cai thien bd mdy, nghien cffu phdt trien cdc sdn pha'm mdi, chd thi irtfdng khdi sac trd lai.
- Dd'i vdi cdc doanh nghiep bi tac ddng trtfc lie'p cua dich benh phai cat giam chi phi, ddc biet la chi phi tiln Itfdng cua nhan vien. Cd nhieu phtfdng dn dtfdc su" dung nhtf: cat giam gid lam nhiftig giff nguyen so' Itfdng nhan vien, cho nhan vicn nghi xoay ca, Idm viec tai nha va trao dd'i qua online, chi bd't ddc dT mdi cho nghi ban mdt so' bd phan.
- Tim hffdng di mdi, sdn pha'm mdi. Cdc doanh nghiep can uye'n chuye'n tha> ddi md hinh kinh doanh de phue vu nhu cau phdt sinh trong mua dich hodc tan dung ihdi gian nay de xay dtfng hinh anh thtfdng hieu.
Trien khai cdc dtf an. cdng viec quan trpng nhtfng chtfa dtfdc thtfc hien, Nhieu doanh nghiep tan dung thdi gian ndy de' xiic tie'n nhtfng cdng viec cdn tdn dpng hay chtfa trie'n khai vi thie'u thdi gian va ngudn Itfc.
4. Kd't luan
Dich benh ndi chung vd dai dich Covid-19 ndi rieng la mdt trong nhtfng tham hpa dd'i vdi loai ngtfdi. Nd gay td'n tha't ve nhan mang, thidt hai ve kinh te', bd't on ve xd hdi, khie'n cudc sd'ng bi dao ldn,... Viet Nam cung nhtf cac qud'e gia tren the' gidi dang no Itfc ngan chan stf lay lan ciing nhtf khd'ng che dich benh.
Ben canh dd. Chinh phii cdc ntfdc cung khdng quen nhiem vu phue hdi vd phdt trien kinh te'. Khi tinh hinh dich benh dtfdc kie'm soat chat che. Chinh phu cac ntfdc se ttfng btfdc ndi long cac bien phdp phong tda. each ly xd hpi, ddng thdi ban hdnh cac giai phap kinh le nham giam thieu nhffng thiet hai. thdo gd nhffng khd khan cho cdc dd'i tffdng bi anh htfdng trtfc tie'p bdi dich benh.
Song, viec nghien ctfu anh htfdng cua dich Covid-i9 de'n kinh te - xa hdi va cac giai phdp kinh te cua Chinh phu hau Covid-19 Id mdt va'n de Idn mang tinh cap bdch, ddi hdi phai nghien cffu sau hPn cho ttfng va'n dl cu the •
TAI LIEU THAM KHAO:
I. Chinh phij Nirdc Cong hda xa hgi chii nghTa Viet Nam (2020). Nglu cpiye't phien hgp Chinh phti thudng ky thdng 2 nclm 2020. 10/3/2020.
2 Chinh phu Ntfdc Cong hoa xa hdi chu nghTa Viet Nam (2020). Nghi cpiyetphien hgp Chinh plni thifdng kv thdng 3 ndm 2020. 9/4/2020. ^
3. Chinh phii Ntfdc Cdng hda \a hdi chii nghia Viel Nam (2020), Nghi cpiyei vC- ceic bieu phdp hS tra ngUcfi ddn giip klui khdn do dgi dich Covid-19. 9/4/2020.
4 Lc Hiep (2020). Toan canh 3 giai doan dich Covid-19 lai Viel Nam. litips://ihcmluiieii.vn/ilioi-.su/iocm-ceinh- .^•giui-cloein-dich-cc>vicl-19-ieti-viel-neim-1207707.hlnil.S/4/2020.
So 8 - T h d n g 4/2020 93
S.Can \ an LUc > il Nhom lac gii \ ien Dao iao»a Nshien ciJu BIDV (2020),. Bai dich Co\ ij-19 Idc Jong manh den nginh kinh lenSo cija Viel Nam?/i///):/Anciv./mrtgwwiivf<).i7!/c/)Mm^t/t'//52-/.^J«i-J(V/i-c<»w</W9-fac-do^^^
manh-den-nsanh'kiith-te-nao-cua-\iet-nam. 13/4/2020.
6, Gia Thanh (2020). Ba kich ban kinh te \'iel Nam 2020 hau Covid-19. ltttps://baoqiu>cte.vii/ba'kiclt-ban-kiith- te-uet-nattt-2020-hau-corid-l9-ll3564.litnil.l3/4/2020.
Nga> nhSn bai: 26/3/2020
Ngay phan bi$n danh gia va siJa chiTa: 6/4/2020 Ngay cha'p nhSn d3ng bai: 16/4/2020
Thiing tin Idc gid:
1. ThS. TR.\N THI BICH DUNG Tri/cfng Dai hpc VSn Lang 2. ThS. TRAN BA THO
Trifcfng Dai hpc Kinh te' thanh pho H6 Chi Minh
THE URGENCY OF SOLUTIONS FOR VIETNAM'S ECONOMY AFTER THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC
• Master, TRAN THI BICH DUNG Van Long University
• Master. TRAN BA THO University of Economics Ho Chi Minh City
ABSTRACT:
The economy is sensi(nei\ affected by external events such as wars, natural disasters and pandemics The ongoing Co\id-19 pandemic which is spreading in many countries in the
«orld not only lus claimed many lives but has greatly hindered the economic growth of many countries. Due to the Covid-19 pandemic, the unemployment situation has worsened while the income of labourers has fallen. The urgent issue for the leaders of countries is to quicltly tackle Ihe Covid-19 pandemic as w ell as recover the economy with macro and micro economic solutions.
Keywords: Co\id-19, inipacis of the Covid-19 pandemic, economic solutions.
94 So 8 - Thdng 4/2020