TAPCHiCfiAiBTHIffriVG
GIAI PHAP CHO NEN KINH TE VIET NAM TRlJCfC ANH HlJdNG TlJ CUOC CHIEN TRANH
THlTCfNG MAI MY TRUNG
• NGUYEN TH! THU TRANG
TOM TAT:
Chie'n tranh thu'dng mai giiJa Trung Qud'c va My khdi dau da leo thang v^ trd ndn vd cung
"ndng". Dieu nay tac ddng khdng hd nhd dd'n nen kinh te' the' gidi ndi chung va Vidt Nam ndi rieng. Nhan tha'y sU can thie't rang Vidt Nam can ed nhiJng giSi phdp ddi phd nhS^t dinh trdde nhiJng bie'n ddng bat thifdng bdi anh hu'dng cua cuoc chie'n tranh thifdng mai, bai vid't de cap den mdt sd' giai phap nham on dinh nen kinh te' Vidt Nam, dd'ng viJng trufdc sif "ndng bong" cua chie'n tranh thifdng mai My - Trung.
Ttt khoa: Chid'n tranh thifdng mai, euge chien My - Trung, thue quan, giai phap thifdng mai, quy tien te the' gidi, thSm hut thu'dng mai, kinh te' Viet Nam.
1. Chig'n tranh thu'dng mai My - Trung va tac ddng tdi Vi^t Nam
1.1. Bdn chat chien tranh thUdng mai My - Trung
Cude chid'n thUdng mai giifa My va Trung Qud'c ehinh thdc bat dau khi cac qui dinh ap thue' tri gid 34 ty USD cua My nham vao hang hda Trung Qud'c ed hieu life, Vay, chie'n tranh thUdng mai nay mang ban chS't gi?
Chie'n tranh thUdng mai la cude chie'n giffa hai hay nhieu nUdc, trong dd cae nifdc cd' gang ta'n cdng thUdng mai eua nhau bang cae rao can thUdng mai nhur thud'quan, ban ngach... Dieu nay cd the lam tdn diu'dng nen kinh td'eda cac qud'e gia khac, ddng thdi dSn de'n cang thang ehinh tri leo thang gida cac nUde dd'i lip.
Thue nhap kh^u la thud' danh vao mdt san phS'm dUdc san xua't d nu'dc ngoai, dUdc nhap khau vao trong nifde,,, nham bao ve cae san pha'm ndi dia.
Cude chie'n tranh thu'dng mai gida My va Trung Qud'c da didn ra nhif the' nao?
Tdng thd'ng My ap thud' nhap kha'u vdi hang Trung Qud'c tri gia 34 ty USD do My cao budc Bac Kinh an cap sd biJu tri tue ve thiet ke' va y tudng san phS'm.
Ddng thdi, Tong thd'ng My mud'n eat giam tham hut thUdng mai vdi Trung Qud'e vdi cao bude nifdc nay da cd hanh vi thUdng mai khdng cdng bang:
My bi tham hut thu'dng mai vdi Trung Qud'c d mdc 375 ty USD. Mud'n eat giam tham hut thifdng mai thi My da su" dung thue' ap vao hang nhap kh£u tiJ Trung Qud'c.
Vay, tai sao hanh ddng nay cua My lai gay ra cude chie'n tranh thifdng mai. Chung ta cd thd tha'y rang mue dich chinh cua vide cat giam tham hut diu'dng mai la do My mud'n bao hd trong nude. Bdi theo eac nha phan tich thi thSm hut thu'dng mai chUa ban la xa'u. Nbidu nifde^ed ^^r. kinh •¥. manh dang ehuydn tiJ nen kinh td san xiiat sang nen kinh
4 2 So 7-Thang 4/2019
KINH IE
te' dich vu. Dich vu dang chie'm tdi 90% nen kinh td My. Ngifdc lai, Trung Qud'e ehii yeu la xuS't kha'u hang hda san xua't.
Didn bie'n cua cude chie'n tranh thu'dng mai nhif sau:
- Vao dau thang 3, My da cdng bd' mdc thue' 25% cho ta't ca cdc mat hdng thdp nhap kha'u va 10% tren nhdm.
- Nganh san xua't thep eua My difdc thue day hdn khi nhu cau tang len td dd tang ldi nhuan.
Tuy nhien, cae edng ty My can vat lieu thd. Dd'i vdi ede nha san xuat did va may bay thi chi phi cua hg lai tang len. Dieu dd cd nghia la hg cd the phai tang gia san pham gay ba't ldi cho ngu'di tidu ddng.
Hanh ddng nay anh hifdng dd'n toan clu, dac bidt la ke tif khi Trung Qud'e tra dua.
- Trung Qud'c da danh thue' cac san pham ndng nghiep va cdng nghiep cua My, tif dau nanh, thit Idn tdi may bay, dtd va dng thep, tham chi cd thd danh thud' cae cdng ty cdng nghe cua My nhif Apple din tdi bang edng nghe khdng id nay cd the huge phai tang gia.
- Hanh ddng ddp tra cua Trung Qudc doi vdi My lam nay sinh eudc chie'n thUdng mai toan cau, nd cd the lam tdn thifdng ngifdi tieu dilng tren toan the' gidi bang cdch lam cho mgi edng ty khd khan hdn trong vide van hanh, bude hg phai day gia cao hdn.
Vay ban chat sSu xa ciia eudc chie'n tranh thu'dng mai cho My phdt ddng, bdi nguydn nhan sau:
Thi^ nhd't, la nham can bang cdn edn bang thUdng mai.
Thii: hai, nham kiem che stf trdi day cua Trung Qud'e.
Thit ba, nham ngan can tdc dd phdt tnen khoa hgc cdng nghe ciia Trung Qud'c, day la nguydn nhan quan trgng nha't nham ngan can td'c do phat trien dai ban cua Trung Qud'c.
Thit tu, the hidn thay ddi lap tru'dng ve Trung Qud'c cua Tdng thdng My. My da md't kien nhSn vdi Trung Qudc bdi Trung Qudc ehUa thUe su tif do va md cijfa cho cde doanh nghiep nUdc ngoai, the hidn sif trdi dSy Ian at tam anh hifdng cua My trong khu vdc va thd' gidi.
1.2. Anh hu&ng cua chie'n tranh thidtng m^i ddi vdi Vi^t Nam
Chie'n hranh thifdng mai My - Trung chinh thdc
biing nd, vd ly thuye't thi cac nifdc trong khu vUc chdu A se cd ed hdi bii dap vao ehudi cung dng hang hda cho My thay Trung Qud'c, nhifng thtfc te phdc tap hdn nhieu bdi da sd'hang hda xud't di cua eac ntfdc nay dtfdc Trung Qud'c nhap khau rdi gia cdng ban sang My. Nhtf vay, khi ke td Khi cude chid'n tranh bat d^u thi toan bd chudi cung dng tai chau A se bi ton thtfdng, Va dtfdng nhien Viet Nam se chiu anh htfdng ra't Idn bdi Viet Nam vd'n cd quan hd kinh te' thtfdng mai sau rdng vdi ca 2 ntfdc. Vong xody thtfdng mai gitfa 2 ctfdng qud'c nay dU bao se tdc ddng tdi xuS't nhap khiu h^ng hda cua Viet Nam theo ca 2 chieu htfdng tieu ctfc va tich ctfc.
Viet Nam se cd cd hdi nhieu hdn bdi ca Trung Qudc hay My deu ed the Itfa chgn chuyen htfdng dau tu, sau dd xua't khd'u hang hda ttf ede ntfdc trung gian nhtf Viet Nam sang ntfdc kia de khdng phai chiu mdc dp thue' cao.
Dau ttf FDI cua Trung Qud'c va My vao Viet Nam se gia tang, de thdng qua do gidm thiet hai cua cude chid'n tranh thUdng mai va cd the tidp tuc trong thdi gian tdi. Viet Nam cd the tan dung thdi cd gia tang hang xua't khau, gia tang thi phan tren da't My.
Doanh nghiep Viet Nam cd cd hdi nhap khau nguyen lidu hang hda gia re nay ttf Trung Qud'c, dd la ldi thd' giam gid thanh xu£l kha'u sang My de canh tranh...
Tuy nhien btfc tranh khdng han se loan mau hdng. Viet Nam vdn ghi nhdn tang trUdng kinh te cao du cdc ntfdc Idng gidng bi anh htfdng nang ne.
nhtfng cude khung hoang anh htfdng tdi Viet Nam Idn dan.
Stf yd'u di eua he thdng thtfdng mai ttf do toan cau (WTO) trong dd ed Viet Nam
Chau Au va Canada cung da cd nhffng ddng Uidi danh thud mang tinh bdo hd. Viet Nam se phdi tim each lam vide vdi nhffng dd'i tac toan cau nhtf Canada, Nhat Ban, Trung Qud'c... dd dam bao viec tuan thu sau hdn cae nguyen tac cua WTO.
Cac loai thue radi dp cung se anh hUdng rd rdt tdi thtfdng mai xuyen bidn gidi giffa Viet Nam va Trung Qud'c. Xua't khau vao My cua Viet Nam cd the se tang, nhtfng ede cdng ty Trung Qud'c cung nhieu kha nang se tang ctfdng xua't kha'u vao Viet Nam, khie'n cdn can thtfdng mai giffa Viet Nam va Trung Qudc cang trd ndn chenh lech va didu nay cd the lam tinh hinh te hdn.
So 7 - T h d n g 4/2019 43
l A P CHi CONG IHintNG
2. Giai phap nhSm han che' rui ro cua cac tac dong tieu crfc ddn ndn kinh td' Viet Nam
2.1. Nhan dinh chung ve chien tranh thUc/ng mai My - Trung Qudc
Xung dot thtfdng mai giffa My va Trung Qud'c da leo thang sud't ma'y thang nay, khi hai bdn lien tuc "an mie'ng tra mie'ng" hdng each dp thue'va de dga dp thud Idn hang hda cua nhau. Tinh trang nay khie'n gidi dIu tU toan cSu lo ngai vd khd nang di de'n mdt cude chid'n thtfdng mai tdng lUc giffa hai nen kinh td' Idn nhd't thd gidi.
Tuy nhien, anh htfdng kinh te^ vi md tiJ cude chid'n thUdng mai My-Trung cd the khdng nghiem trgng nhtf nbidu ngtfdi lo sd. Chuyen gia kinh te'tnfdng toan cau Andrew Kenninghamcua Capital Economics da dtfa ra 5 ly do dd ndi rang tac ddng kinh te' vT md cua cude chien thUdng mai dd'i vdi My va Trung Qud'c se ehi d mtfc han che':
Thd nhdt, mien la "chinh sach tai khoa khdng bi that chat, thue' quan chtfa chac da khie'n tdng cau trong ndn kinh td' suy giam". Thud' quan cd the se ehuydn htfdng ddng chay thtfdng mai giffa hai ntfdc sang cdc qud'c gia khde, thay vi gay ra stf suy giam nhu e^u.
Thd hai, gid tri thtfdng mai toan clu cd the se khdng giam.
"Do CO gian nhu cau dd'i vdi hang hda xua't khau eua Trung Qud'c la kha tha'p, va nhieu mat hang My xua't khau sang Trung Qud'c cd the ehuydn htfdng sang thi trtfdng khde".
T/jM" ba, xua't khau khdng chie'm ty trgng Idn so vdi tdng san pha'm trong ntfdc (GDP) cua ca My va Trung Qud'e.
Du hai nudc deu ed stf phu thudc vao thUdng mai, dng Kenningham cho rang My va Trung Qud'c la "nhffng nen kinh te ttfdng dd'i ddng kin".
Xua't khd'u chi ttfdng dtfdng khoang 20% GDP cua Trung Qud'e trong nam trUde, giam so vdi ty le 36% vao nam 2006,
Ddi vdi My, ty le nay tham ehi edn tha'p hdn:
xua't khau ehi tUdng dtfdng 12% GDP cua ndn kinh tdldn nhd't the gidi.
Thd tu, thtfdng mai song phtfdng My-Trung ddng gdp mdt phan ra't nhd trong GDP mdi ntfdc.
Thtfdng mai vdi My chi ddng gdp 2,5% vao GDP Trung Qud'e, va thtfdng mai vdi Trung Qud'c chi ddng gdp 1% vao GDP My.
"Ndn gid tri thtfdng mai gitfa bai ntfdc cd gidm tdi 20%, thi tac ddng tnfc tie'p den GDP chi d mdc 0,5% dd'i vdi Trung Qud'c va 0,2% ddi vdi My", dng Kenningham dtf bao. Bdi vay, theo vi chuyen gia nay, cac nha dau ttf khdng can phai hoang sd VI eudc chie'n thtfdng mai.
Thd ndm, lam phat d ca My va Trung Qud'c c6 the se khdng bi anh hudng nhieu bdi xung dot thtfdng mai. Bdi vay, ehinh sach tien te cua mdi ntfdc it cd kha nang chiu tdc ddng.
2.2. Be xuat m^t sd gidi phdp nham han che rui ro cua cdc tdc dong tieu ctic den nin kinh te Viet Nam trong CUQC chien tranh thUctng meii My - Trung Qudc
Trffdc nhffng thach thdc do chid'n tranh thtfdng mai My - Trung gay ra, Viet Nam can ed dd'i sach dd trdnh nhffng anh hUdng tidu ctfc ttf cude chien nay. Tac gia xin de xua't mdt vai giai phap dtfdi day:
- Tan dung td't thi trtfdng Vidt Nam rdng Idn:
vdi gan 100 trieu ngUdi tieu dilng d mdc thu nhap trung binh, la thi trtfdng ha'p dan va se dtfdc nhieu ntfdc quan tam.
- Tranh da'u khdng ngffng de giff gin va phat tnen cac thi trUdng xua't kha'u eua minh. Trffdc mat, anh htfdng trtfc tie'p cua cude chie'n ndi tren la nhffng khd khan do chinh quyen My dUa ra nham ngan chan xud't khiu thep, nhdm, cd da trdn vao thi trUdng nay. De trdnh rdi vao tinh the' khd xff va nguy hiem cho chu quyen qud'e gia thi each td't nha't la khdng theo phe nao, tffe giff vi the "tmng lap kinh le'".
- Phai da phffdng hda td'i da cdc quan he kinh te', ngoai vide ky kd't hiep dinh CPTPP la bffdc tie'n ra't td't nhtfng ta can di xa hdn nffa de bd sung nhffng thi trtfdng da khdng cdn tdn tai. Mat khdc, ta phai ngdn chan stf ehi phd'i, dtfdi mpi hinh thdc cua mdt qud'c gia hay khd'i kinh te, len ndn kinh te Viet Nam".
- Budc dau se la da phtfdng hda td'i da quan he kinh te', thtfdng mai thdng qua nhffng hiep dinh FTA the' he mdi, ddng thdi se khdng de mdt ddi tac nao ed mdt vi the' ed the ehi phd'i dUde ndn kinh te qud'c gia. Chinh sach nay khdng chi dp dung cho ngudn cau ma cd cho ngudn cur: "; -i^ cho nen kinh te'qud'e gia.
- Han che tdi mdc khdng c |,, phfi", ^^j^j^ ^^^.
quan he kmh te, thtfdng mai vdi nhffng qua'c gia va khd'i kinh te hidn tai. De thtfc hien bifo,. nav
44 So 7-Thdng 4/2019
KINHTE
Chinh pbij se sffa ddi Luat Canh tranh theo dung de hffdng ldi. Tuy nhien, cdc DN Viet Nam ein tinh than cua nen kinh te' thi trffdng, bao ddm stf ludn ghi nhd diem cd't ldi cua kinh doanh ben vffng canh tranh binh dang va nghiem cd'm sff chi phd'i la cha't Itfdng di dau. Trong cude chie'n thUdng mai thi trtfdng cua mdt doanh nghiep, mot qud'c gia hay nay, Viet Nam khdng la nen kinh te'dd'i dau trUc mot khd'i kinh te. tie'p vdi My, khdng cd nghia la chiing ta se khdng 3. Ket lu§n bi My khdng che. Chiing ta can chuan bi san cdc Trong ngan ban, chung ta cd thd tdn dung he chinh sach dd'i phd bdi Viet Nam ra't ed thd nam qua eua cude chie'n tranh thtfdng mai My - Trung trong vdng xody chung eua toan cau •
TAI LIEU THAM KHAO;
1. Diamond, Jeremy. "Trump hits China with tariffs, heightening concerns of global trade war". CNN. Truy cap ngdy 22 thdng 3 ndm 2018.
2. "Intellectual property theft, not metal, is the real trade war in US sights and it's a much bigger worry". ABC, 9 March 2018
3. Nicholas Chapman "Viet Nam duac gi vd mdt gi trong chien tranh thuang mai My - Trung", https://news.zing.vn 4. Website: http://vietnamnet.vn
5. Website: https://news.zing.vn
Ngay nh§n bai: 25/3/2019
Ngay phan bidn danh gia va su'a chiJa; 4/4/2019 Ngay chap nhan dang bai: 14/4/2019
Thong tin taenia:
ThS. NGUYEN THI THU TRANG
Khoa Kinh te cd sof - Trtftfng Dai hoc Kinh te Ky thuSt cdng nghiep
ECONOMIC SOLUTIONS FOR VIETNAM'S ECONOMY IN THE CONTEX OF THE US - CHINA TRADE WAR
• Master. NGUYEN THI THU TRANG Faculty of Fundamental Economics University of Economics - Technology for Industries
ABSTRACT:
The h-ade war between China and die United States is escalatmg. This trade war has greatly impacted on die world economy in general and Viehiara' s economy in particular. It is important for Vietanm to figure out some solutions for unusual economic fluctuations due to the effects of this trade war. This article is to propose some solutions to help Vietnam stabihze die country's economy in the context of die US-China trade war.
Keywords: Trade war, the US-China h-ade war, tariffs, trade solutions. International Monetary Fund, trade deficit, economy of Vietnam.
So 7 - Thang ^/2019 4 5
